By McKinsey Global Institute & Various Authors
Once the economy recovers, many of the new jobs are likely to emerge in different industries and occupations from where the jobs were lost, often requiring new skills and relocation to a different area. This is evident in the increasing lag between the recovery of the economy and the return of employment to their pre-recession levels.
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The jobless recovery periods are now significant longer - 15 months after the recession, 39 months after the recession, and in all likelihood, it will take more than 60 months for employment to recover, while GDP reached its precession level in December of To return to pre-recession employment levels by the US economy needs to create 21 million net new jobs. To see how this might be possible, the McKinsey study developed three different scenarios based on the data gathered through their surveys, interviews and economic analysis.
Follow the Money? How About Follow the Jobs. | Woods Financial
They built their scenarios by analyzing in depth the six sectors of the economy that, due to their size and growth potential, would most impact overall US employment in the next decade: health care, business services, leisure and hospitality, construction, manufacturing and retail. These six sectors account for 66 percent of private employment today, and McKinsey estimates that they will account for 70 to 85 percent of job growth in the coming decade.
Only their most optimistic scenario would return the economy to full employment, i. In this high-job-growth scenario, the economy would grow by an average of 1. In the midrange scenario, the economy would grow 1.
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The low-job-growth scenario estimates that the economy would only grow by 0. Unlike a number of other advanced economies with aging populations, the US labor force is expected to continue growing, from roughly million in to million by So will the need for better educated workers with specific skills requirements.
An Economy That Works: Job Creation and America’s Future
By , 34 percent of the workforce is projected to have a college degree or higher, - up from 31 percent today, 25 percent in and only 13 percent in Nevertheless, the McKinsey study projects a shortage of 1. It also estimates that by , about 26 percent of US workers will have a high school diploma with no additional post-secondary education, - about. But the supply-demand gap is not just in education. There is also a skills gap.
Swonk said. The leisure and hospitality showed no growth. In addition, the construction industry, which is closely linked to weather conditions, shed 31, jobs last month. Stoller, chairman and chief executive of Express Employment Professionals, which is based in Oklahoma City. He compared it to taking a breath during a marathon, before a second wind kicks in. Other recruiting and employment professionals also expect the labor market to regain its momentum. Bill Ravenscroft, a senior vice president at the staffing firm Adecco, pointed to a growing willingness to convert temporary workers into full-time staff members.
The high rate of conversion, he said, shows there is little concern that layoffs will be needed down the road. With job postings outpacing applicants, Adecco has started to offer daily pay to lure more people into the pool of potential workers. Ravenscroft said.
He said he expected new locations, many of them franchises, to open this year. As has been the case throughout the recovery, job opportunities can vary widely by region. Our consultants are ready to help a business launch, conduct market research, work on pricing or budget strategy, work on a merger, and much more.
Try today and get more done! Feel Accomplished. The power of a digital platform is not always apparent until it reaches a certain critical mass.
Online talent platforms appear to be approaching exactly that sort of tipping point. As these platforms rapidly expand the size of their user networks and the volume of data they can synthesize, the cumulative benefits are growing larger. We believe there is potential for online talent platforms to create real macroeconomic impact in the years ahead—and as these technologies continue to evolve, they may change the world of work in ways that we can only begin to imagine today.
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